Causal Loop Diagram- Antibiotic Use

The first bacteria in which penicillin resistance was found happened just four years after the drug started being mass produced.

That was back in 1947. Since then, public health officials have seen a number of other drug resistant pathogens increasing worldwide.
The original mental model behind antibiotic use was that epidemics or diseases in general would be less of an issue to public health. When disease is not overwhelming the population, public health is good and the need for antibiotics goes down. In the beginning, antibiotics worked very well against pathogens and doctors would routinely prescribe them, people would take them anytime they were sick and if doctors did not prescribe them, patients would demand a prescription. Over the years and an unintended consequence of prescribing antibiotics so frequently is that some bacteria mutated making it resistant to antibiotics. This is shown by the reinforcing loop in the low left hand side of the diagram. This should also be noted as the delay in initial unintended consequences of the mental model.

Today, we are seeing not only drug resistant bacteria but “superbugs”. Superbugs are the result of drug-resistant pathogens becoming resistant to almost all antibiotics making it harder for health care providers to find treatment options for their patients. Pathogens have become “superbugs” after the once drug resistant drugs became resistant to the alternative antibiotics prescribed to treat the disease. “Superbugs” are especially common in hospitals and nursing homes. The latest problem is MRSA, a staph bacterium that triggers infections so virulent they can turn deadly within days. The effects of “superbugs” feed back into the original mental model that health care providers were trying to avoid- outbreaks of disease/epidemics. When the rate of disease is up, the public health is down and researchers will continue to develop new antibiotics. Unfortunately it will only be a matter of time before those antibiotics become obsolete against pathogens.

Violence in Iraq Connection Circle

As the United States Military prepares to withdraw from Iraq, concerns for violence still in the country raises some questions about the country’s ability to maintain itself. Questions also resonate as to why there is still violence after President Bush declared a victory in Iraq in May, 2003. This issue of violence in the region stems from hundreds of years ago (tension between religious groups) to recent al-Qaeda influence. The issue of violence is important to understand because of the upcoming withdraw of US troops and so that policy makers can understand why violence has continued in the area. In turn, that may help curb the violence. The connection circle outlines some vague causes for the violence against both the US troops and civilians.

There are several “hard” elements in this issue:
• US Casualties
• Monetary cost of the war and presence in Iraq
There are also several “soft” elements in this issue:
• Presence of Al-Qaeda in the region
• Tension between religious groups- Shia and Sunni
• Lack of an efficient Iraqi security force

One of the noticeable feedback circles is the connection between Sunni and Shia tension to the presence of al-Qaeda in Iraq which has led to the lack of security and US involvement. This feeds back to overall tension between the religious groups and al-Qaeda in the region. As depicted in the connection circle each of these leads to other issues which ultimately brought us to overwhelming public discontent which in turn influenced the government to begin the withdraw of US troops from the country.